Logótipo Próximo Futuro

Moçambique tem a terra no centro da questão

Publicado3 Ago 2013

Etiquetas moçambique eleições lei da terra Prosavana

Com eleições autárquicas marcadas para 20 de Novembro deste ano, Moçambique vive um clima de intensidade política, com diferentes questões e muitos atores em cena. O programa Prosavana, que altera a propriedade da terra, é uma das questões centrais com que o governo, o actual e o futuro, terá que lidar.

"A parceria fechada entre os governos de Moçambique, Brasil e Japão há quatro anos poderá mudar radicalmente a vida de 4 milhões de pequenos produtores rurais moçambicanos, mas ainda não existe clareza sobre os benefícios para a população – o que faz com que especialistas e a sociedade civil do país vejam o megainvestimento com desconfiança e apreensão.

Culturas de soja, projetos de reflorestamento com impacto social negativo, casos de expropriação e vastas produções de algodão para exportação já existentes em Nacala também embasam a tensão provocada pelo programa."

Pode ler-se mais aqui, aqui e aqui

As eleições de amanhã

Publicado30 Jul 2013

Etiquetas Chioniso Maraire zimbabué Elisabete Azevedo-Harman eleições

Chioniso Maraire, importante cantora zimbabueana de 37 anos, faleceu esta semana e já não verá o futuro governo do seu país. Ficam-nos as suas canções e a denúncia social que as suas letras retratam.

O Zimbabué vai a votos amanhã. Esta é uma eleição que se deve acompanhar, percebendo o que foram os últimos cinco anos de goevernação partilhada e que papel têm os zimbabueanos e a comunidade internacional a desempenhar. 

"If the country was divided before the power-sharing agreement, it is no less divided five years later. Credibility of elections has decreased among voters, while distrust between parties and even within parties has increased. The aim of power sharing in Zimbabwe was to end post-election violence. However, despite short-term gains the inclusive government has revealed the down-side of coerced coalition. 

The 2008 violence has generated new uncertainties for 2013. The two parties dominating the contest are as bitter rivals now as they were in 2008 and may have developed an even greater intolerance for each other. "

Há mais para ler aqui

27 de Abril 1994 - África do Sul

Publicado27 Abr 2013

Etiquetas áfrica do sul eleições apartheid

Há 19 anos atrás a África do Sul realizava as primeiras eleições depois do fim do apartheid. Nascia o milagre. Esta data não se reveste de uma importância exclusiva para a África do Sul, nem mesmo do sul da África. É maior a sua importância. E por isso vale a pena ver o documentário do Canal História.Todo o documentário aqui

"Moderate Islamist Party Winning Morocco Election"

Publicado30 Nov 2011

Etiquetas eleições marrocos primavera árabe

© Abdelhak Senna/Agence France-Presse - Getty Images

RABAT, Morocco — A moderate Islamist party appeared Saturday to have won parliamentary elections in Morocco, the second time in weeks that voters in the region have chosen Islamists in elections brought on by the Arab Spring.

The Justice and Development Party won a plurality of the vote, the first under the country’s new Constitution, according to partial election returns announced by the government on Saturday. If those results hold up, the king will be required to choose a prime minister from the party and the party will have the right to lead a coalition government.

The Constitution, drafted by King Mohammed VI in response to pro-democracy protests last spring, still reserves important powers for the king, including over military and religious matters, and remains a far cry from the constitutional monarchy demanded by the protesters. But the government will be Morocco’s first popularly elected one, with the power to appoint ministers and dissolve Parliament.

Para continuar a ler o artigo de Souad Mekhennet (Rabat) e Maïa de la Baume (Paris) no New York Times, basta clicar aqui.

Ainda sobre as eleições presidenciais no Perú

Publicado9 Jun 2011

Etiquetas eleições peru política

Artigo na Oxford Analytica, "Humalla will not bring abrupt change in Peru":

Ollanta Humala's narrow victory yesterday over Keiko Fujimori represents a swing to the Left, albeit limited by his commitment to maintain the free-market model that has produced strong growth in recent years. It ends a campaign of recrimination in which two ideologically opposed candidates struggled to prevail but opinion polls showed them evenly matched. To attract centrist voters, especially in the key battleground of Lima, Humala was forced to project a more moderate image than early campaign literature suggested.

What next
Humala takes over from Alan Garcia on July 28. Fears that a Humala administration would lead to an abrupt leftward shift in economic policy are exaggerated. To reassure markets, Humala is likely to choose a fairly conservative figure to occupy the key post of finance minister. An announcement may take place soon. A Humala government will seek to place greater emphasis on social policy. With respect to foreign policy, relations with Brazil are likely to become the key reference point. 
Analysis
With 87.6% of the vote officially counted, Humala was leading Fujimori, daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), by 50.9-49.1% of valid votes. Since much of this came from urban areas, it seems likely that the final tally will give a slightly larger margin to Humala, as his vote was particularly strong in more remote rural and indigenous parts of the country. Official figures were closer than those suggested at the close of voting, both by exit polls and rapid count. 
A likely Humala victory -- Fujimori has yet to concede defeat -- is also consistent with polls reputable polling organisations conducted in the last days of the campaign. Because of electoral rules, these results were not published within the country, but were widely available through foreign websites. 
Both partial official results and previous estimates show Humala winning in most of Peru's departments, except Lima and some in the north, which historically have been strongholds of the ruling APRA party. Humala sought to appeal to voters in the capital in the second round campaign, and appears to have garnered sufficient support to secure overall victory. 
Campaign dynamics
Since the first round on April 10 (see PERU: Fujimori has runoff advantage - April 12, 2011), in which Humala won 31.7% and Fujimori 23.5% of valid votes, the two have been level. Until the last week, it seemed that Fujimori had a slight advantage (see PERU: Fujimori has second round edge - May 19, 2011), leading by up to four percentage points, according to some polls. However, the tide appeared to change in recent days:

  • The Humala campaign successfully attacked Fujimori as heralding a return to the corruption and autocracy that characterised her father's government. Fujimori's choice of collaborators, many of whom were stalwart supporters of her father's government, did not help her. Her campaign failed to broaden its base after the first round.

  • Humala managed to convince voters that his shift towards more consensual, centrist politics was genuine, and a Humala government did not represent a threat to continuity in the impressive pattern of growth in recent years. He managed to attract a number of prominent centrist economists, some of whom were important in the centre-right administration of former President Alejando Toledo (2001-06).

  • By focusing on social policy, Humala responded to a deep-felt need to make Peru's growth model work better for poorer groups in society, especially in rural and more indigenous areas far from the capital (see PERU: Humala, Fujimori promise inclusive growth - April 25, 2011). The Garcia government (2006-11) stands accused of failing to ensure that trickle-down trickled further.


Humala agenda
Despite his reputation as a left-wing nationalist close to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Humala opted for a centre-left position built on a quest for consensus. Furthermore, he will lack a majority in Congress, and need to look for cross-party support to pass legislation. The campaign for the presidency -- both in the first and second round -- made clear that there is no strong appetite for radical change:

  • Economic policy. In his speech to supporters, Humala yesterday stressed the need to maintain business confidence and continue attracting foreign investment. The more radical-sounding aspects of his original 'government plan' were dropped during the campaign, including revising trade liberalisation agreements and aspects of the 1993 constitution that provide guarantees to investors. During the second round, Humala came up with a 'road map', which was markedly more conciliatory to business interests. However, like other candidates, he remains committed to introducing a windfall tax to ensure that the Treasury benefits from spikes in mineral prices.

  • Social policy. Humala has promised to introduce new policies to improve the lot of the poor. These include a universal pension for those over 65. This is a policy adopted in neighbouring Bolivia, albeit for those over 60. A key challenge facing a Humala administration will be to improve the mechanisms by which social benefits are distributed. He will probably seek advice from Brazil, where social programmes have been conspicuously successful in reducing poverty and inequality. In Peru, this might mean expanding conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes like Juntos, first introduced by Toledo but downplayed by Garcia.

  • Decentralisation. The process of decentralisation will probably be accelerated under a Humala administration. His most fervent support comes from outside Lima, traditionally the hub of a highly centralised administrative apparatus. Part of the explanation for Humala's success is his alliance with important regional political figures who will expect to benefit in return. However, Humala will need to square demands for greater fiscal decentralisation with the need to ensure this does not lead to irresponsible fiscal policies that jeopardise macroeconomic stability.

  • Foreign policy. His reputation for being anti-Chilean seems unlikely to influence policy towards Peru's southern neighbour, unless relations sour for other reasons. Both countries are involved in international litigation over their maritime frontier. A Humala government will seek to privilege Brazil as the key foreign policy reference point, avoiding becoming ensnared with relations with Venezuela. Brazil provided significant advice and assistance to the Humala campaign. Humala will seek to improve hitherto fractious relations with Bolivia. Most importantly, a Humala government would seek to maintain friendly relations with Washington -- albeit possibly more distant than his predecessor.




Impact


    • Peru has shown itself evenly divided throughout the campaign.

    • < em>Humala convinced moderate opinion that a vote for Fujimori was a vote for the sort of governance that characterised her father's government.

    • A Humala government will not lead to abrupt change in economic policy, but greater attention to dealing with social deprivation.




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