Ainda sobre as eleições presidenciais no Perú

Artigo na Oxford Analytica, "Humalla will not bring abrupt change in Peru":

• The Humala campaign successfully attacked Fujimori as heralding a return to the corruption and autocracy that characterised her father's government. Fujimori's choice of collaborators, many of whom were stalwart supporters of her father's government, did not help her. Her campaign failed to broaden its base after the first round.


• Humala managed to convince voters that his shift towards more consensual, centrist politics was genuine, and a Humala government did not represent a threat to continuity in the impressive pattern of growth in recent years. He managed to attract a number of prominent centrist economists, some of whom were important in the centre-right administration of former President Alejando Toledo (2001-06).


• By focusing on social policy, Humala responded to a deep-felt need to make Peru's growth model work better for poorer groups in society, especially in rural and more indigenous areas far from the capital (see PERU: Humala, Fujimori promise inclusive growth - April 25, 2011). The Garcia government (2006-11) stands accused of failing to ensure that trickle-down trickled further.

• Economic policy. In his speech to supporters, Humala yesterday stressed the need to maintain business confidence and continue attracting foreign investment. The more radical-sounding aspects of his original 'government plan' were dropped during the campaign, including revising trade liberalisation agreements and aspects of the 1993 constitution that provide guarantees to investors. During the second round, Humala came up with a 'road map', which was markedly more conciliatory to business interests. However, like other candidates, he remains committed to introducing a windfall tax to ensure that the Treasury benefits from spikes in mineral prices.


• Social policy. Humala has promised to introduce new policies to improve the lot of the poor. These include a universal pension for those over 65. This is a policy adopted in neighbouring Bolivia, albeit for those over 60. A key challenge facing a Humala administration will be to improve the mechanisms by which social benefits are distributed. He will probably seek advice from Brazil, where social programmes have been conspicuously successful in reducing poverty and inequality. In Peru, this might mean expanding conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes like Juntos, first introduced by Toledo but downplayed by Garcia.


• Decentralisation. The process of decentralisation will probably be accelerated under a Humala administration. His most fervent support comes from outside Lima, traditionally the hub of a highly centralised administrative apparatus. Part of the explanation for Humala's success is his alliance with important regional political figures who will expect to benefit in return. However, Humala will need to square demands for greater fiscal decentralisation with the need to ensure this does not lead to irresponsible fiscal policies that jeopardise macroeconomic stability.


• Foreign policy. His reputation for being anti-Chilean seems unlikely to influence policy towards Peru's southern neighbour, unless relations sour for other reasons. Both countries are involved in international litigation over their maritime frontier. A Humala government will seek to privilege Brazil as the key foreign policy reference point, avoiding becoming ensnared with relations with Venezuela. Brazil provided significant advice and assistance to the Humala campaign. Humala will seek to improve hitherto fractious relations with Bolivia. Most importantly, a Humala government would seek to maintain friendly relations with Washington -- albeit possibly more distant than his predecessor.

• Peru has shown itself evenly divided throughout the campaign.


• < em>Humala convinced moderate opinion that a vote for Fujimori was a vote for the sort of governance that characterised her father's government.


• A Humala government will not lead to abrupt change in economic policy, but greater attention to dealing with social deprivation.