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Artigo na Oxford Analytica, "Humalla will not bring abrupt change in Peru":

Ollanta Humala's narrow victory yesterday over Keiko Fujimori represents a swing to the Left, albeit limited by his commitment to maintain the free-market model that has produced strong growth in recent years. It ends a campaign of recrimination in which two ideologically opposed candidates struggled to prevail but opinion polls showed them evenly matched. To attract centrist voters, especially in the key battleground of Lima, Humala was forced to project a more moderate image than early campaign literature suggested.

What next
Humala takes over from Alan Garcia on July 28. Fears that a Humala administration would lead to an abrupt leftward shift in economic policy are exaggerated. To reassure markets, Humala is likely to choose a fairly conservative figure to occupy the key post of finance minister. An announcement may take place soon. A Humala government will seek to place greater emphasis on social policy. With respect to foreign policy, relations with Brazil are likely to become the key reference point. 
With 87.6% of the vote officially counted, Humala was leading Fujimori, daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), by 50.9-49.1% of valid votes. Since much of this came from urban areas, it seems likely that the final tally will give a slightly larger margin to Humala, as his vote was particularly strong in more remote rural and indigenous parts of the country. Official figures were closer than those suggested at the close of voting, both by exit polls and rapid count. 
A likely Humala victory -- Fujimori has yet to concede defeat -- is also consistent with polls reputable polling organisations conducted in the last days of the campaign. Because of electoral rules, these results were not published within the country, but were widely available through foreign websites. 
Both partial official results and previous estimates show Humala winning in most of Peru's departments, except Lima and some in the north, which historically have been strongholds of the ruling APRA party. Humala sought to appeal to voters in the capital in the second round campaign, and appears to have garnered sufficient support to secure overall victory. 
Campaign dynamics
Since the first round on April 10 (see PERU: Fujimori has runoff advantage - April 12, 2011), in which Humala won 31.7% and Fujimori 23.5% of valid votes, the two have been level. Until the last week, it seemed that Fujimori had a slight advantage (see PERU: Fujimori has second round edge - May 19, 2011), leading by up to four percentage points, according to some polls. However, the tide appeared to change in recent days:

Humala agenda
Despite his reputation as a left-wing nationalist close to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Humala opted for a centre-left position built on a quest for consensus. Furthermore, he will lack a majority in Congress, and need to look for cross-party support to pass legislation. The campaign for the presidency -- both in the first and second round -- made clear that there is no strong appetite for radical change:


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